AN OLYMPIC GAMES HIATUS.

WEDNESDAY FREE SPEECH ZONE. Some rain, some wind, some waves ... Fay was rather slow and boring (which was okay, compared with the 2005 hurricanes) ... and nothing new on the VP front besides lots of conflicting rumors. Also, here's something new: click here to view our Ballot Access Chart to see which Presidential candidates are on the ballot in your state (note: keep in mind filing is still open in some states).
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.20.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY FREE SPEECH ZONE. While Hurricane Fay is expected to sweep up and strike the gulf coast side of the Florida, those of us here on the Atlantic coast are expected to experience tropical storm conditions on Monday night/Tuesday daytime. Just some heavy winds (under 40 mph) and lots of rain for us, so no big deal really.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.18.08 | Permalink |

FRIDAY FREE SPEECH ZONE. Another day, another open thread.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.15.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY FREE SPEECH ZONE. Arkansas Democratic Chair Bill Gwatney was shot and killed on Wednesday after a gunman burst into state party headquarters. The shooter was later killed by police following a high-speed chase ... John McCain launched a trial balloon in an interview with the Weekly Standard when he said he would now possibly be open to selecting a pro-choice VP runningmate like Tom Ridge, but said he couldn't go so far as to consider Mike Bloomberg because the NYC Mayor is just too staunchly pro-gay rights.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.14.08 | Permalink |

WEDNESDAY FREE SPEECH ZONE. Yup, your turn again.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.13.08 | Permalink |

TUESDAY FREE SPEECH ZONE. Tuesday is congressional primary day in Colorado and Nevada ... Russia's military invasion drives deeper into Georgia ... Bush returns to the White House ... and the Olympic games continue.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.11.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY FREE SPEECH ZONE. It's all about you.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.10.08 | Permalink |

WEEKEND FREE SPEECH ZONE. Have at it.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.09.08 | Permalink |

FREE SPEECH ZONE. With the Olympics starting on Friday, it means most political news will take a back seat for a little while. The Obama family is going off on vacation, and I'd guess that John and Cindy McCain will also sneak off for a little down time. Unless some major political news breaks, I'm just going to post daily open threads until the end of the games.

TENNESSEE. Thursday's primary in the Volunteer State saw another congressional incumbent defeated. In CD-1, former Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe defeated freshman Congressman David Davis in the GOP primary by vote of 50.2% to 49.2% -- and a slim margin of exactly 500 votes. A third candidate captured 0.6% and 325 votes. It was a rematch from the 2006 primary, when Davis edged Roe after several others from Roe's part of the district split his base. A third rematch in 2010 already seems likely. As for November, the seat is so reliably Republican that no Democrat has won it in over 130 years. In CD-7, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R) defeated Shelby County Register Tom Leatherwood by a 2-to-1 margin. In CD-9, freshman Congressman Steve Cohen (D) won a surprisingly easy victory over attorney Nikki Tinker. Cohen, who is white, was expected to face a highly competitive Dem primary challenge his largely African-American district. Tinker was one of several black challengers two years ago who split the black vote, which enabled Cohen to win in the 2006 primary by a very slim plurality. On Thursday, by contrast, Cohen defeated Tinker by a 79% to 19% vote. In the US Senate race, former State Democratic Chair Bob Tuke defeated six rivals in his primary and will next face incumbent Lamar Alexander (R) in November.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.08.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

VEEP PICKS DEFERRED; NEW PREZ, US SEN, CONGRESS, GOV POLLS.

VEEPSTAKES. Barack Obama's visit to Indiana -- accompanied by Evan Bayh -- came and went with no VP announcement. Lots of mutual praise, but no Veep pick. In fact, it's starting to look like Obama plans to go off on his Hawaii family vacation and seemingly defer making any public pick until after the Olympics end. Ditto for McCain likely to defer any VP decision until after the games end.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
FLORIDA (PPP-D): McCain - 47%, Obama - 44%.
NEW JERSEY (Rasmussen): Obama - 52%, McCain - 42%.
NEW YORK (Rasmussen): Obama - 52%, McCain - 32%.
WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): Obama - 47%, McCain - 35%.

US SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US Senate races.
NEW JERSEY (Rasmussen): US Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) - 51%, former Congressman Dick Zimmer (R) - 33%.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US Senate races.
OHIO CD-15 (SurveyUSA): Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) - 47%, State Senator Steve Stivers (R) - 44%, pro-life activist Don Eckhart (I) - 7%.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 52%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 36%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.07.08 | Permalink |

WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

JENKINS, HULSHOF & KILPATRICK WIN NARROW PRIMARY VICTORIES; MARTIN WINS BIG IN GA.

KANSAS. The hottest Kansas race of the day was the GOP primary in CD-2. State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins narrowly defeated social conservative former Congressman Jim Ryun by a vote of 51% to 49%. Jenkins is a a GOP centrist, while Ryun is a leader of the Religious Right wing of the Kansas Republican Party. Jenkins is expected to be a highly competitive challenger in the general election against vulnerable freshman Congressman Nancy Boyda (D). Jenkins' first test will be to forge party unity after a bruising primary in a state well known for lasting rifts between the two rival GOP ideological factions. Also, as expected, former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) scored a landslide win in his US Senate primary on Tuesday. Slattery will face US Senator Pat Roberts (R) in November.

MICHIGAN. Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick narrowly won her renomination fight in CD-13. Kilpatrick won 39%, followed by former State Representative Mary Waters at 36%, and State Senator Martha Scott third with 25%. Kilpatrick enjoyed a lopsided advantage in primary campaign cash: $500,000 for the incumbent versus roughly $10,000 apiece spent by each of the two challengers. Waters said on Monday she may continue her campaign into the general election as either a write-in or under a third party banner. Waters refused to concede the race Tuesday night.

MISSOURI. Congressman Kenny Hulshof defeated State Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the costly gubernatorial primary by a vote of 49% to 45%. Hulshof will face Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in November. In the open CD-9 contest to fill Hulshof's House seat, former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer won the GOP nomination by a 9-point lead over the nearest of his four opponents. On the Dem side, State Representative Judy Baker likewise won by a 9-point margin over the nearest of her three primary competitors.

GEORGIA. Former State Representative Jim Martin (D) cruised on Tuesday to an easy US Senate run-off victory over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones. Martin had placed second in the primary, but the party seemed to rally behind Martin over the past few weeks as Independent polls show he was significantly stronger than Jones against US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) for the general election. Martin defeated Jones by a 60% to 40% vote.

US SENATE. Just one independent poll today for the US Senate races:
OREGON (SurveyUSA): US Senator Gordon Smith (R) - 49%, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) - 37%, salesman Dave Brownlow (Constitution) - 8%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.06.08 | Permalink |

TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENT COULD FALL ON PRIMARY DAY IN KANSAS, MICHIGAN, MISSOURI; RUN-OFF DAY IN GEORGIA; AND SIX NEW PREZ POLLS.

KANSAS. Former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) will win an easy victory in Tuesday's US Senate primary. Slattery will face US Senator Pat Roberts (R) in November. Senate race rating: GOP Favored. The hot race to watch in the state on Tuesday is the GOP primary in CD-2. State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins and former Congressman Jim Ryun are locked in a very tough contest symbolic of the ongoing split within the Kansas Republican Party. Jenkins is from the moderate wing of the party, while Ryun is closely aligned with the hardcore Religious Right faction. Traditionally the candidates from the conservative wing of the party win low turnout primary contests, so we'd give Ryun a slight edge. Either one will provide a highly competitive challenge in the general election against freshman Congressman Nancy Boyda (D). Boyda is possibly the most endangered House Democrat in the nation. Race rating: No Clear Favorite.

MICHIGAN. There are five congressional primaries on Tuesday, but the only race worth watching is the hot CD-13 Democratic primary. Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick -- the mother and staunchest defender of indicted Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick -- is facing the fight of her political life. State Senator Martha Scott and former State Representative Mary Waters are both aggressive challengers to the incumbent, although recent polling shows Waters being the stronger of the two. Kilpatrick is counting on the two challengers splitting the opposition vote, allowing her to narrowly win another term. However, Kilpatrick is clearly vulnerable and appears likely to lose Tuesday if Waters can gain a solid advantage over Scott. The winner of the primary -- any of the three -- will win in November in this solidly Dem district.

MISSOURI. Two Republicans -- Congressman Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman -- are waging a costly gubernatorial primary to replace unpopular retiring Governor Matt Blunt (R). Polls in the final days show Hulhof holding an advantage. The winner will face Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in November. Race rating: Leans DEM. The two CD-9 primaries for Hulshof's open seat are also hotly contested, with five Republicans and four Democrats running. On the GOP side, former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer and State Representative Bob Onder are the frontrunners, although former pro football player Brock Olivo also continues to generate some attention. On the Dem side, State Representative Judy Baker appears to be a slight favorite over former State House Speaker Steve Gaw, former State Senator Ken Jacob and Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode. The three men are all to the right of Baker, which is likely help her by splitting the more centrist and Blue Dog vote. Baker has also outraised her primary foes in campaign cash. Race rating: GOP Favored.

GEORGIA. Tuesday is also primary run-off day in the Peach State. While DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones placed first in last month's Democratic primary for US Senate, he is likely to lose today. The primary opponents eliminated last month have rallied behind former State Representative Jim Martin -- the '06 Lieutenant Governor nominee -- and Martin appears likely to defeat Jones. Independent polls also show Martin significantly stronger against US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) in the general election, although the incumbent will still be favored over Martin.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
ALABAMA (Rasmussen): McCain - 58%, Obama - 38%.
ARIZONA (Rasmussen): McCain - 57%, Obama - 38%.
ARIZONA (PPP-D): McCain - 52%, Obama - 40%.
CONNECTICUT (Rasmussen): Obama - 53%, McCain - 40%.
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 50%, Obama - 44%, Others - 3%.
MASSACHUSETTS (Suffolk Univ.): Obama - 47%, McCain - 38%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.05.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

BAYH, CANTOR RISE IN VEEPSTAKES; SIX PREZ POLLS; MORE ALASKA NUMBERS ON STEVENS; SENATORS DOLE, CORNYN LEAD; NIXON LEADS FOR MO GOV; MO CD-6 RACE TIGHTENS.

VEEPSTAKES. The new buzz this weekend -- and, let's face it, even the so-called experts are all guessing here -- is that Obama plans to announce Evan Bayh as his runningmate on Tuesday. Why? Because the Obama press corps was informed over the weekend they will be in Indiana on Tuesday and Wednesday, yet there are no campaign events in the state on Obama's published schedule. On the GOP side, the media's spotlight of speculation was shining on US House Chief Deputy Minority Whip Eric Cantor. Cantor reportedly is being seriously vetted. Why? He's young, conservative, Jewish, and from the swing state of Virginia. Stay tuned.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
ALASKA (Rasmussen): McCain - 44%, Obama - 39%.
ARIZONA (Rocky Mountain Poll): McCain - 43%, Obama - 38%, Nader - 3%.
FLORIDA (Florida Chamber of Commerce): McCain - 45%, Obama - 40%.
KENTUCKY (Research 2000): McCain - 56%, Obama - 35%.
MISSOURI (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 44%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Research 2000): McCain - 47%, Obama - 43%.

US SENATE. ALASKA - Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell (R) told Roll Call he does not intend to switch into the US Senate race if indicted incumbent Ted Stevens (R) withdraws after the primary, nor does he expect Governor Sarah Palin (R) to become the replacement nominee if it comes open (note: Parnell doesn't expect Stevens to quit). Meanwhile ... here are the latest independent polls for US Senate races:
ALASKA (Roll Call/Ivan Moore Research): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 56%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 35%.
ALASKA - GOP Primary (Roll Call/Ivan Moore Research): US Senator Ted Stevens - 59%, former State Representative Dave Cuddy - 19%, Others - 2%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Research 2000): US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 50%, State Senator Kay Hagen (D) - 42%.
TEXAS (Rasmussen): US Senator John Cornyn (R) - 47%, State Representative Rick Noriega (D) - 37%.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
MISSOURI (SurveyUSA): Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) - 48%, Congressman Kenny Hulshof (R) - 42%.
MISSOURI (SurveyUSA): Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) - 50%, State Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) - 41%.
MISSOURI - GOP Primary (SurveyUSA): Congressman Kenny Hulshof - 45%, State Treasurer Sarah Steelman - 35%, Others - 9%.

CONGRESS. The new independent polls for the US House contests:
INDIANA CD-9 (SurveyUSA): Congressman Baron Hill (D) - 49%, former Congressman Mike Sodrel (R) - 42%, economist Eric Schansberg (Libt) - 4%.
MISSOURI CD-6 (SurveyUSA): Congressman Sam Graves (R) - 48%, former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D) - 44%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.04.08 | Permalink |

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