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| BLOG ARCHIVE: JANUARY 1-15, 2006
HOUSE
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP. Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ)
made it official on Friday, announcing his candidacy for the House
Majority Leader spot. In addition to his own vote, he announced
two other pledges -- and the endorsements of the conservative
Club for Growth and National Review. House Majority Whip
Roy SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is
Mike Weaver for Congress (D-Kentucky). OPEN
THREAD. Start of a three-day weekend ... so what else
is there to chat about?. Also, yet another plug for my eBay
auctions of campaign buttons.
HOUSE
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP. The race for Majority Leader between
House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) and former House Republican
Conference Chair John Boehner (R-OH) turned a bit silly on Thursday.
Blunt claimed he had "100+" pledges of support and Boehner
said he had 86 pledges. However, unlike the other counts in recent
days, both of these vastly inflated numbers were based upon a
large amount of unnamed commitments. Both camps voiced serious
doubts about the opposing claims of support. No movement yet from
Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ), but all signs point to him entering
the race.
FLORIDA.
If there was ever SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is
Club for Growth: Blog. OPEN
THREAD. Only a month after we profiled satanic Minnesota
gubernatorial candidate Jonathon "The Impaler" Sharkey,
the mainstream media "discovers" him. Also, yet
another plug for my eBay
auctions of campaign buttons. HOUSE
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP. In the race for Majority Leader,
House Majority Whip ABRAMOFF
SCANDAL. National Journal reports the Republican
Governors Association is preparing to announce they will donate
to charity the $500,000 that Abramoff partner Michael Scanlon
collected for the RGA in 2002. RGA Chairman Mitt Romney (R-MA)
already waded into the Abramoff scandal Tuesday by calling on
the House Republicans to immediately strip Congressman Bob Ney
(R-OH) of his powerful committee chairmanship. A new name in the
Abramoff mix is that of Congressman J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ). KPHO-TV
reported Hayworth's PAC -- TEAM PAC -- received over $83,000 in
donations tied to Abramoff. In turn, that helped enable TEAM PAC
to pay Hayworth's wife more than $130,000 in compensation. MONTANA.
Yes, I know ... third day in a row with a US Senator Conrad Burns
(R) article. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows the barrage of
bad publicity about Burns' close ties to Abramoff have taken a
major toll. His once double-digit lead over the two leading Democrats
is gone. Burns and liberal State Senate President Jon Tester (D)
are tied at 45% apiece. Burns leads State Auditor John Morrison
(D) by a narrow 46% to 43% vote. COLORADO.
State House Majority Leader Alice Madden (D) plans to jump into
the open race for Governor, if Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper
(D) doesn't run. According to Colorado Political News,
Madden is already making calls to round up tentative commitments
of support and money. However, according to the website, Madden
"is still optimistic that Hick will enter the race."
Many Colorado Dems are unhappy with former Denver District Attorney
Bill Ritter's pro-life views. State Representative Gary Lindstrom
is also running for the Democratic nomination, but is viewed as
a very weak candidate. SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is Betty
McCollum for Congress (D-MN). OPEN
THREAD. Talk amongst yourselves. Also, yet another
plug for my eBay
auctions of campaign buttons.
MONTANA.
Despite waves of speculation to the contrary, US Senator
Conrad Burns (R) insists he's not going to quit his re-election
race. "Write it down, real quick: I've never had more enthusiasm
or higher energy for a campaign in my life than I got right now,
OK? End of story. I never had this much enthusiasm in 1988. Take
it to the bank. Make book on it," said Burns to The Missoulian.
Burns went on to blame a cabal of newspapers and Democrats for
his current political troubles, saying the stream of stories tying
him to admitted felon Jack Abramoff are "half-truths and
innuendos ... Until I am or I am not [charged], what makes it
a story? ... The Democrats said they were going to run a smear
campaign and they're doing it," said Burns. Here's what Burns
is having trouble explaining: He took just under $150,000 in donations
from Abramoff, his clients and associates -- more than any other
lawmaker. Burns promises to either return the money or give it
to charity. Two Burns staffers also left his office to take jobs
with Abramoff. Burns claims he only met Abramoff once.
Besides, Burns added, "we use lobbyists" for help because
Senators cannot know everything about every issue. VERMONT.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Governor Jim Douglas (R) is
holding a comfortable lead in his race for re-election. Douglas
leads former State Democratic Chair Scudder Parker (D) by a 54%
to 31% vote. In other Vermont news, Congressman TEXAS.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll tests the new four-way race
against Governor Rick Perry (R). The numbers: Perry - 40%, State
Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) - 21%, former Congressman
Chris Bell (D) - 14%, author/musician Kinky Friedman (I) - 11%.
Rasmussen did not test former Supreme Court Justice Bob Gammage
(D) as the Democratic nominee. In related news, the Texas Secretary
of State's Office said they plan to carefully scrutinize Strayhorn's
petition signatures because more than a quarter of all those submitted
in 2005 by independent Presidential candidate Ralph Nader were
invalid. SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee. OPEN
THREAD. Talk amongst yourselves. Also, the ongoing
shameless plug for my eBay
auctions of campaign buttons. HOUSE
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP. Monday was Day #1 of the now declared
contest for US House Majority Leader. As of the end of the first
day, National Journal reported House Majority Whip MONTANA.
In the wake of GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff's guilty plea
last week, speculation is running rampant inside the beltway that
US Senator Conrad Burns (R) will quit his re-election contest.
Roll Call speculated Congressman Denny Rehberg -- a former
Lieutenant Governor -- will be the GOP's replacement candidate.
Another name I'd throw into the mix would be former Governor and
former Republican National Chairman Marc Racicot. The RNC last
month sent Racicot on a tour of the state to drum up support for
President Bush's programs. If Rehberg runs, the move would also
open Montana's lone US House seat. That move could prompt one
of the leading Dems currently in the US Senate race to switch
into the open House seat contest. In a state where the Dems captured
the governorship, the State House and State Senate, and won 3
of the other 4 statewide offices in 2004 -- despite Bush carrying
the state by a wide margin -- these could all become competitive
open seat contests. GUBERNATORIAL
CONTESTS. In Pennsylvania, State Senator
Jeff Piccola (R) ended his year-long campaign for Governor. His
campaign failed to catch fire in against his two better known
opponents: conservative former pro football playor Lynn Swann
and centrist former Lieutenant Governor Bill Scranton. Just hours
after Piccola dropped out, Swann defeated Scranton by a 77% to
23% vote in the first round of Republican Party regional caucuses.
On February 11, the Republican State Committee will endorse a
candidate for Governor in November. The two men will still face
off in the primary, although one will be able to claim the moniker
of "endorsed candidate." In Ohio, Congresswoman
Marcy Kaptur (D) announced she would not jump into the race for
Governor. Some union activitis had tried to encourage a possible
Kaptur candidacy. SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is MoveOn.org. OPEN
THREAD. Your turn. Also, a shameless plug for my
new eBay
auctions of campaign buttons -- including a really rare Father
Coughlin-related third party congressional button.
ABRAMOFF-DELAY
DEVELOPMENTS. Former US House Majority Leader Tom DeLay
(R) formally told the House Republicans he is permanently surrendering
the leadership post he held un Even
with DeLay agreeing to remain out of the House Leadership, he
will likely remain the apparent eminence grise of the
House Republicans. Remember that both House Speaker Denny Hastert
(R-IL) and House Majority Whip In
more related news, Time obtained an email written last
week by FBI Washington Field Office Chief Michael Mason in which
he congratulated his agents for their work on the Abramoff investigation
but added "the case is far from over." He also wrote
there are still "bigger targets." Here is what Time
is reporting: "Bribery has always been a difficult thing
to prove, absent a videotape of a crook stuffing the pockets of
a politician with cash. But so large are the amounts involved
-- and so voluminous the evidence from a man who committed nearly
every thought to e-mail -- that prosecutors in the Abramoff case
may even test the proposition that legally reported campaign
contributions constitute bribery, if it can be proven they were
given expressly in return for official actions ... A
high-level source tells Time that prosecutors will also
focus much of their energies on the lesser and easier-to-prove
charge of 'honest services mail fraud,' for which they have to
show only that a lawmaker has acted in his personal interest or
that of another individual but not of his constituents in return
for improper gain." Maybe that explains why Congressman Jim
McCrery (R-LA) -- who is expected to become the powerful Ways
& Means Committee Chair next year -- told a Gannett News Service
reporter this weekend that House Administration Committee Chair
Bob Ney (R-OH) will "probably be indicted." Finally,
Congressman
John Doolittle (R-CA) -- reported to be a target of the FBI's
investigation -- says he will not return any of the campaign money
he received from Abramoff. To do so, explained Doolittle, would
create an appearance of wrongdoing. OHIO.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Congressman Ted Strickland
-- the likely Democratic nominee for Governor -- holding a leads
over any of his likely GOP rivals. According to the poll, Secretary
of State Ken Blackwell is clearly the strongest possible Republican
candidate. Strickland led Blackwell by a close vote of 44% to
40%. Strickland led Attorney General Jim Petro by a slightly wider
vote of 43% to 38%. Strickland destroyed State Auditor Betty Montgomery
by a lopsided vote of 49% to 33%. Interesting to note is that
Strickland has never before been a candidate for statewide office
-- meaning Strickland should start with lower name ID -- versus
all three of his major GOP rivals, who have each won statewide
races in the past. In some good news for the Republicans, tremendously
unpopular and term-limited Governor Bob Taft (R) recently said
he doesn't plan to endorse any of the GOP hopefuls in the primary
because he claims he is too busy focusing on his official duties.
In related news, US Senator Mike DeWine (R) appears to be improving
his re-election prospects. According to this same poll, DeWine
now leads holds attorney and Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett (D)
by a 43% to 39% vote. DeWine also leads Congressman Sherrod Brown
(D) by a 45% to 40% vote. This same poll had previously showed
Hackett and DeWine tied.
SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is Steve
Westly for California Governor. OPEN
THREAD. So ... what else is going on? SUNDAY OPEN THREAD. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. I'll write up the DeLay developments for
Monday. Until then, you folks are running the show. Also,
FYI, check out my new eBay
auctions of campaign buttons -- some of the duplicates from
my collection -- including a really rare Father Coughlin-related
third party congressional button. FLORIDA.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows a very close
gubernatorial contest in Florida. Attorney General Charlie Crist
(R) led Congressman Jim Davis (D) by a 36% to 35% vote. Crist
led State Senator Rod Davis (D) by a vote of 40% to 35%. State
CFO Tom Gallagher (R) was tied with Davis at 37% apiece. Gallagher
led Smith by a 36% to 35% vote.
GEORGIA.
A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Zogby poll
shows Governor Sonny Perdue (R) appears in decent shape to win
re-election. Perdue led Secretary of State Cathy Cox (D) by a
53% to 37% vote. Perdue led Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor (D)
by an even wider margin: 56% to 31%. The poll also showed that
former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed is struggling
in his race for Lieutenant Governor. Despite Perdue's strong numbers
and Reed's high name recognition, Reed ran 3-points behind a generic
Democratic nominee: 36% to 33%. MISSOURI.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll surprisingly shows US Senator
Jim Talent (R) trailing State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D). McCaskill
holds a 46% to 43% advantage. SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is Frameshop OPEN
THREAD. If you want to talk about something other than
poll numbers, this is the place.
MAINE.
When State Representative Barbara Merrill quit the Democratic
Party and became an Independent -- paving the way for her to make
an Indy run against Governor John Baldacci (D) this year -- it
created a tie in the State House. In addition to the 73-73 tie,
Merrill's move brought the total of others to 4 Independents and
1 Green. The Dems have only held control of the Maine House since
the 2004 elections. For a brief time, it looked like the Dems
would be forced into a power-sharing agreement. The two party
leaders had negotiated the deal and were preparing to make the
formal announcement when the equation again changed. State Representative
Joanne Twomey (Independent) unexpectedly rejoined the Democratic
Party to give them control once again. Twomey had unenrolled from
the Dems just last November. "The people who put me in this
seat wanted us to be the majority party ... At the end of the
day, I can't go back home and say that, because I unenrolled,
it ended up shaking up the whole party," explained Twomey,
who said she would not have quit the Dems last year had she known
Merrill was also planning to unenroll.
VOUCHERS.
The Florida Supreme Court on Thursday rejected the state's
voucher system that allows some children to attend private schools
at taxpayer expense. The justices ruled 5-2 that Governor Jeb
Bush's "Opportunity Scholarship Program" violates the
Florida Constitution's requirement of a uniform system of free
public schools and must end at the close of the current school
year. Although it was the nation's first statewide system of school
vouchers, only 700 children appear to be impacted by the ruling.
Bush decried the ruling as "a sad day for accountability
in our state ... school choice is as American as apple pie in
my opinion." Writing for the court, Justice Barbara Pariente
said the program violates the state constitution because it "diverts
public dollars into separate private systems parallel to and in
competition with the free public schools." The two justices
who dissented with Bush appointees, as was one justice who ruled
with the majority. SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is FishbowlDC. OPEN
THREAD. Never mind last night's note -- I woke up early
and found some time to post today. GOP
DELAY'ED. It no longer appears
ABRAMOFF
SCANDAL. It turns out the NRSC's spin that "Forty
of forty five members of the Democrat Senate Caucus took money
from Jack Abramoff" (a line from the GOPSenators.com site
we recognized just yesterday) is simply false. It turns out Abramoff
has never given a penny of his money to Dems. An NRSC spokesman
called the line a typo, saying they meant to say from Abramoff's
associates and clients. According to the National
Journal, even this is a major stretch. To get to the
"40 of 45" figure, the NRSC included contributions from
the Greenberg Traurig law firm's PAC -- as that is where Abramoff
once worked -- even though GT is one of the largest law firms
in the nation. Even some conservative Republicans are starting
to play the Abramoff card in their campaigns. Georgia State Senator
Casey Cagle (R) -- a candidate for Lieutenant Governor -- used
Abramoff to blast primary rival Ralph Reed. "We have every
confidence the ongoing Justice Department investigation will fully
review the evidence and continue to seek appropriate legal remedies
on behalf of all those wronged by Jack Abramoff, Ralph Reed, and
the others involved in this matter," said Cagle's spokesman.
If news reports are accurate, the scandal could ultimately result
in the indictments of ten Members of Congress and at least ten
high-ranking Hill staffers. NEVADA.
In an surprising development, popular Las Vegas Mayor
Oscar Goodman (D) is apparently considering making a challenge
to US Senator John Ensign (R). US Senate Minority Leader Harry
Reid (D-NV) confirmed to the Las Vegas Sun that Goodman
recently spoke to him about running. If Goodman -- who won re-election
with 86% of the vote -- enters the race, he may face a primary
contest against Presidential scion Jack Carter.
Carter has badly trailed Ensign in recent polls. A Goodman candidacy
would move this race from the "Safe GOP" column into
the "Leans GOP" category. WYOMING.
Republicans still have no candidate to challenge Governor
Dave Freudenthal (D) in this traditionally red state. On Tuesday,
State House Speaker Randall Luthi (R) announced he would not run
against Freudenthal. "[When] you run against an incumbent,
it's hard to raise money. Frankly, I wasn't willing to put a mortgage
on my farm in order to do that, " said Luthi. He also said
being a candidate would interfere with his ability to be an effective
Speaker. Term-limited State Treasurer Cynthia Loomis (R) remains
a possible candiate for Governor. SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is Campus
Progress. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. So, what else is there to talk about today? ABRAMOFF
SCANDAL. Former high-powered Republican lobbyist Jack
Abramoff is embarking on a new career: singing. Well, singing
to the federal prosecutors is more like it. On Tuesday,
NEW
YORK. Told 'ya so. "I'm not going to run for Governor
because I'm having too much fun doing what I'm doing now. I'm
the largest builder in New York ... I have one of the top shows
on television. It's a little hard to leave all of that,"
said wealthy businessman Donald Trump to the New York Post.
He also told the newspaper he'd likely support Attorney General
Eliot Spitzer (D) for Governor. "He's done an amazing job
[as Attorney General]," explained Trump. Interestingly,Trump
hinted he was interested in running for the President in 2008
-- making this the third time he's toyed with a White House bid.
SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is GOPSenators.com
(National Republican Senatorial Committee). FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Ready, set, go. TEXAS.
Candidate filing closed in Texas on ARIZONA:
Here are some unusual comments US Senator Jon Kyl (R)
delivered at a public meeting, Speaking about his opponent, former
State Democratic Chair and wealthy businessman Jim Pederson, Kyl
said: "I think [the Democrats] were embarrassed at not having
an opponent for me [in 2000] ...Because my opponent is very well-funded
they see that he may have a chance. Because of his money, he probably
does have a chance.” I'd bet you that quote shows up soon
on Pederson fundraising and campaign items. SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is Jim
Davis for Governor (D-Florida). SOMETHING NEW. Want to advertise your campaign, cause, company or group on an individual state page here on Politics1? Now you can, and for only $50 per month. Click here to learn more. (As long as I'm pitching business stuff, here's another shameless plug ... check out my eBay auctions of various campaign buttons -- particularly if you collect locals or third party items. We've placed 15 lots online, with all of the auctions closing later this week.) FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Your turn (yet again). NEW
YORK. State Senate Majority SITE
OF THE DAY: Our site of the day winner is Stateline.org,
an independent project of the Pew Research Center. SOMETHING NEW. Want to advertise your campaign, cause, company or group on an individual state page here on Politics1? Now you can, and for only $50 per month. Click here to learn more. (As long as I'm pitching business stuff, here's another shameless plug ... check out my eBay auctions of various campaign buttons -- particularly if you collect locals or third party items. We've placed 15 lots online, with all of the auctions closing later this week.) FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Have at it. |
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Blunt
(R-MO) and former House Republican Conference Chair John Boehner
(R-OH) reigned in their respective (and inflated) claimed numbers
of pledges from the day before. Here's the real tally now, counting
only named commitments: Blunt-83, Boehner-42, Shadegg-3. Meanwhile,
Congressmen John Sweeney (R-NY) and Dan Lungren (R-CA) joined
the call for expanded GOP leadership elections for all leadership
positions except Speaker. Many House Republicans want to remove
Republican Conference Secretary John Doolittle (R-CA) from his
position in an expanded election, as he and his wife appear to
be among the top Abramoff scandal targets. In other related news,
Speaker Denny Hastert has asked Congressman Bob Ney (R-OH) to
resign as the House Administration Committee Chair. Hastert does
not have the power to remove Ney from the post -- only a majority
vote of the full Republican Conference can remove a sitting committee
chair in mid-term. Hastert's spokesman confirmed the story to
the National Journal. Hastert is apparently holding back
on introducing lobbying reform legislation until Ney -- the most
likely Congressional incumbent to be indicted in the Abramoff
scandal -- is no longer in the GOP leadership. 
IOWA.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll show the open contest for
Governor remains very tight. Congressman Jim Nussle -- the heavy
favorite over business Bob Vander Plaats to win the GOP nomination
-- has slightly improved his standings since the last poll. Nussle
and Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) were tied with 40% each.
Nussle leads former State Economic Development Director and former
Congressman Mike Blouin (D) by a 39% to 34% vote. Nussle bested
State Agriculture Commissioner Patty Judge (D) by a 40% to 36%
vote. Nussle holds a commanding lead over State Representative
Ed Fallon (D) -- the Kucinich of the Iowa Dems -- by a vote of
42% to 27%.
CORRUPTION
(NOT INVOLVING JACK ABRAMOFF). In this recent tsunami
of news about GOP corruption in DC related to lobbyist Jack Abramoff
and friends, it's easy to miss the item about the Hill Democrat
rapidly inching closer to indictment. This past summer, the feds
raided the New Orleans home of Congressman Bill Jefferson (D-LA)
and seized a stash of money hidden in his freezer. This week,
a top Jefferson aide pled guilty to corruption charges. It's only
a matter of time before Jefferson himself is indicted on bribery,
kickback, tax fraud or other similar corruption charges.
any
wonder if the Republican Party was behind all those state ballot
campaigns to ban same-sex marriage, just check out this item.
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported the Florida Republican
Party gave $150,000 to the group that is trying to place a constitutional
amendment on the November ballot to ban same-sex marriage (and
seemingly ban local governments from giving domestic partner benefits
to employees). In fact, the GOP's donation comprises more than
75% of the total the group has raised to date. To place the question
on the ballot, the group must collect and get certified 611,009
valid voter signatures by February 1. The group say they've collected
250,000 thus far. The GOP contributions kicked the drive back
into high-gear this month. Both GOP candidates for Governor, along
with the State GOP Chair, endorsed the proposal. A spokeswoman
for the Florida Republican Party said they are involved in the
effort "solely because we support the issue ... [but] it
happens to be beneficial to have initiatives on the ballot that
Republicans feel strongly about."
Roy
Blunt (R-MO) extended his lead over former House Republican Conference
Chair John Boehner (R-OH) on Wednesday. Here is the latest tally
of declared pledges: Blunt-62, Boehner-35. It takes 116 votes
to win the race. Meanwhile, Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ) appears
closer to entering the race for Majority Leader. "I think
we need to clean up our act in the wake of the recent ethics scandals,
and get back to the agenda that brought us the majority in the
first place. I am concerned that the two members currently in
the race, whom I have a great deal of respect for, will not move
aggressively enough in that direction. I will continue to talk
to Members to gauge how many share that concern," said Shadegg,
who set no date for making his decision. Some House Republicans
are starting to call for wider leaderships elections, giving them
the opportunity to vote for an entirely new leadership team. House
Republican Conference Vice Chair Jack Kingston (R-GA) is already
trying to gather support for an early challenge against Conference
Chair Deb Pryce (R-OH), according to National Journal.
Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) -- a close DeLay ally -- opposes
the idea of wider early elections. However, growing support for
the concept may cause Hastert to call elections for the other
posts by March 2006. All of this is starting to sound like a party
in a state of panic.
Bernie
Sanders (Independent) endorsed State Senate President Pro Tem
Peter Welch (D) as his successor. Sanders is a heavy favorite
to win the open US Senate seat. On Tuesday, Sanders told the Barre-Montpelier
Times-Argus: "I have known Peter Welch for many, many,
years. I believe that he will be a strong progressive voice. I
also know [State Rep.] David Zuckerman. I like him very much.
I think he has done an excellent job in the Legislature ... I
have talked to David on a number of occasions and I have urged
him in the strongest possible terms not to run for the seat ...
I honestly believe that if in fact, because of David's presence
in the race, the Republican wins, I don't think David or his supporters
will feel good the day after the election to have contributed
to maintaining right-wing Republican control in Washington."
Zuckerman is a member of the Progressive Party, a group founded
in the 1980s by followers of Sanders. The Progressive Party is
supports Sanders for the Senate seat. Zuckerman told the newspaper
he had not yet decided if he would remain in the race. However,
he noted: "Historically third party or independent people,
including Bernie, first win major office against the wishes of
those people in power, not particularly with their blessings."
Sanders should know what he's talking about as he -- as an independent
socialist candidate in 1988 -- split the progressive vote and
helped elect Republican Peter Smith to the open Congressional
seat (of course, Sanders ran 20-points ahead of the hapless Democrat
in the race).
Roy
Blunt (R-MO) has 30 public pledges of support from colleagues
versus former House Republican Conference Chair John Boehner (R-OH)
at 18 pledges. Both sides emphasize they each have much more support
"in the wings" that they are not yet prepared to reveal.
Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ) has made it clear he is not running
as of now -- but is very interested in jumping into the race if
neither of the frontrunners can lock it up. Centrist Congressman
Charlie Bass (R-NH) and conservative Congressman Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
sent a joint letter to their colleagues, urging them to make no
early commitments in the leadership race. "Elections that
appear to be foregone conclusions do not advance the reformist
agenda many of us pledged to uphold to our constituents,"
they wrote. If Blunt wins, his Majority Whip position will also
come open for election. Congressman Eric Cantor (R-VA) remains
the frontrunner, claiming to now have over 140 commitments from
his colleagues. Congressmen Mike Rogers (R-MI) and Todd Tiahrt
(R-KS) announced their candidacies for Whip on Monday. Rogers,
a former FBI agent, is positioning himself as the reform candidate
against Cantor. "Bold change is a must if we are going to
regain the public's trust and confidence," said Rogers. Tiahrt
also argues Cantor represents no break from the current leadership.
"We can go with the status quo, which could lead down the
road to the minority, or we can take a different path," said
Tiahrt. Congressman Zach Wamp (R-TN) remains a potential candidate
for Whip. Congressman Mike Pence (R-IN) said he will not be running
for either leadership post. The leadership elections will be held
during the week of January 30. 
DeLay
had planned to seek reinstatement in January-February, if he prevailed
in having the charges dismissed. The guilty plea last week by
Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff -- with his close ties to DeLay
and multiple allegations of influence buying on Capitol Hill --
sealed DeLay's fate. Even the White House attempted to push DeLay
aside last week, although he refused to meet with the President's
emissary. To throw salt in DeLay's wounds, Time magazine
is reporting President Bush considered DeLay an ally but not a
friend, and was actually not unhappy to see DeLay fall from power.
DeLay has also had a running dislike of Bush advisor Karl Rove,
referring to Rove as "a former mail vendor, not some great
guru." In response, an unnamed Bush insider (Rove?) gloated
to Time that the President's inner circle "have
always seen [DeLay] as beneath them, more blue collar. He’s
seen as a useful servant, not someone you would want to vacation
with." 
WASHINGTON.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows US Senator Maria Cantwell
(D) holding a comfortable lead of 51% to 36% over insurance executive
Mike McGavick (R). 
FLORIDA.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows US Senator Bill Nelson
(D) continues to hold a solid lead over Congresswoman Katherine
Harris (R). Nelson led Harris by a 54% to 31% vote. The NRSC,
Governor Bush and other prominent Republicans have been trying
for months -- so far without success -- to recruit another GOP
candidate into the race.
NEW
YORK. Governor George Pataki (R) told reporters Thursday
he thought his State Health Commissioner Antonia Novello -- the
former US Surgeon General and brother of former Saturday Night
Live writer/comedian Don "Father Guido Sarducci" Novello
-- would be "a strong candidate if she chose to run"
against US Senator Hillary Clinton (D). Pataki's comments came
the same day a 
COLORADO.
Retired US Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) announced Wednesday
he would not run for Governor -- and unexpectedly blasted the
conservative wing of his own party as the deciding factor in his
decision. "You can't be held to a strict ideological code
that you can't do anything about. What they want is absolute obedience
... Very frankly, a Governor's seat in this state is a very unappealing
job ... you're under constant attack. I ran a lot of races in
Colorado and never lost one. I was more afraid of winning than
losing," said Campbell. When asked about the two announced
GOP candidates for Governor -- Congressman Bob Beauprez and former
university president Marc Holtzman -- Campbell made it clear he
would support neither of them. "I'm waiting for somebody
I think will have real credentials to get into the race. Nobody
has yet," he explained. In related news, State House Speaker
Andrew Romanoff (D) also announced this week he will not run for
Governor this year.
Abramoff
pleaded guilty to federal corruption and fraud charges in a deal
where he will cooperate and provide testimony for prosecutors
against what is reported to be a group of approximately twenty
Members of Congress and high-ranking Hill staffers. In exchange,
Abramoff will be sentenced to an indeterminate amount of time
of less than 10 years in prison. What must be most troubling for
those legislators is a CNN report that Abramoff apparently retained
"thousands of e-mails in which he describes influence-peddling
and explains what lawmakers were doing in exchange for the money
he was putting into their campaign coffers." It is a felony
for federal officials to perform any official actions in a quid
pro quo exchange for gifts, cash or other direct or indirect
remuneration. If Abramoff really kept a paper trail of evidence,
we could see quite a few indictments, resignations, retirements
and defeats of current incumbents. Our candidate for the first
elected official to be brought down by Abramoff-related charges:
House Administration Chair Bob "
RACE
FOR CASH. All those who claimed Howard Dean's DNC Chairmanship
would cause party donors to stay away in droves are being proven
wrong. The DNC reported raising $51 million in 2005 -- 20% better
than the DNC's take for 2003 -- and a DNC record-high for an off-year.
Not bad for a party that controls nothing in DC. 
CONNECTICUT.
Governor Jodi Rell (R) -- with her 81% approval rating
-- can be placed into the "safe" category. According
to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, Rell would defeat any of her
likely Democratic challengers by landslide margins. Rell led Stamford
Mayor Dan Malloy (D) by a vote of 65% to 21%. She also led New
Haven Mayor John DeStefano (D) by an equally lopsided vote of
65% to 19%. We may need to create an "Extra Safe" category
for Rell.
Monday
and the big news was State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn
-- the mother of White House spokesman Scott McClellan -- quitting
the GOP to file for Governor as an Independent. "It's time
to shake Austin up ... Governor [Rick] Perry may be doing the
best he can, but after five years, we have learned he is not the
strong leader we need to put Texas above politics," explained
Strayhorn. Strayhorn -- a GOP centrist -- was clearly concerned
that Perry had effectively courted the support of hardcore religious,
social conservatives who dominate Texas GOP primaries. A Perry
spokesman shot back by saying the move was "the latest desperate
act of a politician who has no core convictions or guiding principles."
Interestingly, both Perry and Strayhorn were Democratic politicians
before switching to the GOP many years ago. Former Texas Supreme
Court Justice Bob Gammage and former Congressman Chris Bell are
the leading candidates for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
Colorful author/musician Kinky Friedman (Independent) -- who is
running a campaign modeled after pro wrestler Jesse Ventura's
successful 1998 gubernatorial campaign in Minnesota -- is also
expected to have a significant impact on the Gov race. To qualify
for the ballot, Strayhorn and Friedman must each collect roughly
46,000 signatures of voters who did not vote in the primaries
by the May 11 filing deadline for Indy candidates. Strayhorn's
move makes the race a more competitive contest -- as she'll most
likely draw her support from GOP moderates (particularly GOP centrist
women) who would otherwise support the Republican nominee -- although
Perry remains the favorite for the general election. Meanwhile,
US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) drew opposition from a few
little-known challengers. Likewise, the following Members of Congress
failed to draw any major party opposition for the general
election: Al Green (D), Mike Conaway (R), Silvestre Reyes (D),
Lloyd Doggett (D) and Henry Cuellar (D) -- although Cuellar faces
a stiff primary challenge. In an unexpected move, arch-conservative
former Congressman Steve Stockman (R) filed as an Independent
against former US House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) in CD-22.
DeLay already faces a primary challenge from three minor Republicans
and a competitive general election challenge from former Congress
Nick Lampson (D). 
Leader
Joseph Bruno (R) demonstrated the desperation of New York Republicans
in recruiting a viable candidate for Governor when he suggested
Donald Trump is thinking about entering the race. Here's why this
implies desperation in the efforts to derail Attorney General
Eliot Spitzer's (D) frontrunning campaign for Governor. First:
Even if the story is true (and that is rather unlikely), Trump
apparently loves to float his name every few years for political
office. He openly discussed seeking the GOP Presidential nomination
in 1988 and toyed with seeing the Reform Party's Presidential
nomination in 2000 (he even filed FEC paperwork in 1999). But,
after he gets some publicity for the possible candidacy, he quietly
backs out of the contest. Second: Trump is apparently supporting
Spitzer for Governor. He already made a personal donation of $10,000
to the "Spitzer 2006" committee. And, FYI, he previously
contributed $11,000 to Spitzer's 2002 re-election race. Trump
also gave a much smaller amount of money to one of the current
GOP candidates: $1,000 to former Secretary of State Randy Daniels.
Trump's office declined to comment on Bruno's claim. State GOP
Chair Stephen Minarik said he's heard nothing about Trump being
interested in the race.
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