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| BLOG ARCHIVE: NOVEMBER 1-15, 2008.
BEGICH WIDENS LEAD TO 1,022; OHIO CD-15 RACE HEADS TO COURT; CALIFORNIA CD-4 MARGIN NARROWS. ALASKA. The vote counting continues to widen Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich's (D) lead over incumbent US Senator Ted Stevens (R). With 90% of the vote tallied, Begich widened his lead to 1,022 votes on Friday. There are about 24,000 ballots left to be counted, with the bulk of them from Begich's base in the Anchorage area. State officials plan to complete the counting on Tuesday. Stevens was convicted last month in federal court on felony political corruption charges. Stevens and his allies are working the phones to ensure he survives Senator Jim DeMint's (R-SC) motion next week to expel Stevens from the Senate Republican Caucus. Some Senators plan to oppose the expulsion if Stevens is defeated, allowing him to finish his current term on January 4 -- but they say they would vote to expel him from office if he is re-election. "First of all, I hope Senator Stevens is successful in being re-elected. And assuming that he is, I intend to support any motion to remove him," said US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) to Roll Call.
OHIO - CD-15: The close
CALIFORNIA - CD-4. According to the Sacramento
Bee, State Senator Tom McClintock (R) saw his margin drop
by a third on Friday. He now leads retired USAF veteran Charlie
Brown (D) by just 569 votes. Thousands of ballots still remain
to be counted.
OBAMA RESIGNS SENATE SEAT; HILLARY ON SEC OF STATE SHORT-LIST; MN RECOUNT BOARD NAMED.
OBAMA TRANSITION. Barack Obama announced MINNESOTA. County election officials have secured all ballots and voting machines under lock and key until the start next Wednesday of the statewide hand recount of ballots. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D) on Thursday named the four others who will serve with him on the state canvas board. He selected two Minnesota Supreme Court Justices appointed by Governor Tim Pawlenty (R), a county court judge who was elected as a non-partisan candidate, and a county court judge appointed by former Governor Jesse Ventura (Independence). Ritche said the composition of the five person board will ensure the recount is "extraordinarily nonpartisan." A spokesman for US Senator Norm Coleman (R) praised the board: "The people of this state should feel good about who's on the panel." Challenger Al Franken's (D) campaign also praised the choices, saying it proved the recount process was going to be fair. Ritchie set December 5 as the target date for counties to complete the recount.
CALIFORNIA - CD-4. Roughly 36,000 ballots remain
to be counted -- and State Senator Tom McClintock (R) saw his
margin drop yet again. He now leads retired USAF veteran Charlie
Brown (D) by 815 votes as of the end of counting on Thursday. ABSENTEES GIVE BEGICH 814 VOTE LEAD; MN & CA RACES ALSO NARROW; HARDBALL SENATE RACE PREVIEW; ... AND SOME GOOD NEWS FOR POLITICS1 FANS.
ALASKA. The Wednesday counting of absentee, provisional
and military ballots entirely wiped out US Senator Ted Steven's
(R) Election Day lead of 3,257 votes. PENNSYLVANIA - 2010. Lots of undecideds to fight over if the new PPP-D poll is any indication. US Senator Arlen Specter (R) leads TV talk show host Chris Matthews (D) by a vote of 40% to 27%. Keystone State political insiders tell Politics1 that they now believe Matthews is likely to run.
UPDATES ON THE STILL-UNDECIDED ALASKA, CALIFORNIA, MINNESOTA AND OHIO RACES.
MINNESOTA: A pre-recount "audit" in Ramsey County conducted this week -- which was merely a random review of 7,700 ballots -- reduced US Senator Norm Coleman's (R) lead
over humorist Al Franken (D) by 2 votes, dropping the difference to just 219 votes. This statewide recount will take a few weeks to complete.
REICHERT WINS; ALASKA, MINNESOTA & GEORGIA US SENATE RACES, CALIFORNIA CD-4 & OHIO CD-15 STILL UNDECIDED.
WASHINGTON - CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert
(R) was declared the winner in this race on Saturday. With roughly
80% of the vote now counted, his 8,000 vote lead is seen as insurmountable.
CHANGE IS COMING TO POLITICS1.
MINNESOTA: US Senator Norm Coleman's (R) lead
over humorist Al Franken (D) dropped to just 238 votes on Friday.
A hand recount is expected to take 2-3 weeks.
POLITICS1: What’s next for Politics1.com? To
editorialize for a moment, I feel better about where our nation
is now heading politically. Perhaps this incoming administration
and Congress is not as progressive as I’d prefer -- despite the
campaign rhetoric, they’re centrists in my book -- but they’re
still a major improvement. I’m very disappointed in the setbacks
this year for gay civil rights/equality -- but we can still have
our marriages and civil unions recognized in New England (and
likely soon in New York). So, what about Politics1? Hmmm
... It’s time for a change. After 11 years of daily publishing
news and site updates, I am soon going to take an extended break
from the daily news writing. I need it, as I feel drained. I’ll
wait until after we have winners from the still undecided US Senate
and House races -- but then I’m going to take a vacation from
the writing. MERKLEY DEFEATS SMITH; CHAMBLISS-MARTIN HEADS TO DECEMBER RUN-OFF; DON YOUNG RE-ELECTED; BLUNT QUITS AS HOUSE GOP WHIP. US
SENATE:
US HOUSE: CONGRESS.
House Republican Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) announced Thursday he will
not seek re-election to the post for the coming Congress. "Ten
years of asking people to do things they don't want to do is a
long time," explained Blunt. His departure clears the way
for Chief Deputy Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) to move to Whip -- likely
unopposed. The move also likely heads off Cantor's looming challenge
to House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) for the top job. ALASKA, OREGON, GEORGIA & MINNESOTA SENATE RACES STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL, RECOUNTS LIKELY; FIVE HOUSE RACES UNDECIDED; CONGRESSMAN EMANUEL TO BE OBAMA WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF. ELECTION
2008 (CONTINUED):
US
SENATE. US
HOUSE. GOVERNORSHIPS.
Election
Night Thread #2 Election
Night Thread #1 TODAY IS ELECTION DAY. ELECTION COVERAGE. Starting Tuesday evening -- once we can call a few races -- we'll post the news updates here. Regular updates, plus new threads every so often to keep the discussions going. Be sure to check back throughout the night. US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. JUST ONE DAY TO GO...
P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent polls of competitive battleground states in
the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
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coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301.
CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. RON'S ELECTION PREVIEW (AND PREDICTIONS): PART 4 - SOUTH CAROLINA-WYOMING ... AND PRESIDENT. SOUTH
CAROLINA. SOUTH
DAKOTA. TENNESSEE.
UTAH. VERMONT. VIRGINIA.
WEST
VIRGINIA. WISCONSIN.
SEND
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campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
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-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
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coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. Today's thanks
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race
State Senator Steve Stivers (R) and Franklin County Commissioner
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) is now in the hands of federal court judge
and Secretary of State Jennifer Bruner (D). Stivers leads Kilroy
by only 149 votes -- but 1,667 Franklin County voters still have
an opportunity to have their uncounted ballots become valid. According
to the Columbus Dispatch, the fight is whether 1,667 voters
submitted timely absentee ballots but forgot to either sign their
ballot envelopes or supply a driver's license or Social Security
number are allowed to cure the defect. These same issues also
apparently apply to 27,000 provisional ballots from Franklin County
that have yet to be tallied. The lawsuit -- brought on behalf
of Stivers' campaign -- argues that the defect is fatal and incurable,
and thus all 1,667 ballots at issue should be invalidated. The
Franklin County Board of Elections split 2-2 down party lines
on the issue. An emergency hearing in federal court is set for
Saturday morning. Bruner removed the action from state court to
federal court on Friday, and Stivers' campaign is trying to convince
the federal judge to send it back to state court. If the courts
-- federal or state -- ultimately decline to decide the issue
by deferring to state election officials, then Bruner will get
to cast the tie-breaking vote on Tuesday. Bruner has already stated
she believes the ballot defects may be cured by the individual
voters.
Thursday
he will resign his Senate seat effective Sunday. Illinois Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D) is in no rush to fill the vacancy. The New
York Times reported Blagojevich plans to name a new Senator
"around Christmas." The move means Obama will not return
to the Senate for next week's lame duck session. It also means
Obama will not play an official role in the Democratic Caucus'
decision on how to punish Joe Lieberman for his prominent role
in the McCain campaign and at last summer's Republican National
Convention. News reports indicate Obama's surrogates are trying
to forge a deal that would preserve Lieberman's committee chairmanship
and keep him aligned with the Senate Dems. They believe they can
work with Lieberman, who agrees with Obama on most issues -- excluding
the Iraq War. The Caucus may symbolically punish Lieberman by
stripping him of one of his subcommittee chairmanships. In other
news, NBC said Hillary Clinton is being seriously considered for
Secretary of State in the Obama Cabinet. NBC reported Clinton
quietly traveled to Chicago on Thursday for what she claimed was
"personal business." Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack
(D) is believed to be the strong frontrunner for Agriculture Secretary.
Anchorage
Mayor Mark Begich (D) now leads Stevens by 814 votes -- out
of a total of roughly 265,000 votes counted. Neither man was willing to yet make any statement claiming victory. The state still needs to count at least 15,000 questioned ballots and an estimated 25,000 absentees, according to the Anchorage Daily News. GOP pollster David Dittman -- who polled for Stevens' campaign -- told the newspaper he expected "Begich's lead would widen, but not drastically, as the remaining votes are counted." Absentee ballots
mailed from within the US and postmarked by election day will
count if the state receives them by this Friday. Ballots timely
postmarked and mailed from overseas and military bases must be
received by November 19 to be counted. (FYI: No change in the
re-election results for Congressman Don Young (R), who scored
a 50% to 44% victory.)
A
MESSAGE FROM RON. I listened to your emails and comments
about 
officials plan to count most of the roughly 90,000 absentee, provisional and military ballots in the unresolved US Senate between convicted felon/incumbent Ted Stevens (R) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). Stevens led by 3,257
votes in Election Day votes, but there has not yet been any count of these 90,000 other ballots. Absentee ballots
mailed from within the US and postmarked by election day will
count if the state receives them by November 14. Ballots timely
postmarked and mailed from overseas and military bases must be
received by November 19.
VETERANS
DAY OPEN THREAD: Nothing new on "the undecided races"
front ... As expected, Howard Dean announces he will not seek
a second term in January as DNC Chair ... and Clintonista former
DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe filed a campaign committee to run for
Virginia Governor next year ... and, to editorialize (actually,
to repeat a message I've written here lots of times), on this
Veterans Day, it's time to support our troops by bringing them
home from Iraq. Now.
Speaker
Jeff Merkley (D) moved ahead of US Senator Gordon Smith (R) as
more votes were counted -- enough so that AP and Oregon media
declared Merkley the winner. So, that's Senate pickup #6 for the
Democrats.
ALASKA:
Still unresolved, with convicted felon US Senator Ted Stevens
(R) leading by around 3,000 votes -- but as many as 50,000 absentee
votes remain to be counted. GOP fissures are becoming public in
the Senate Republican Caucus about the future of Stevens, presuming
he is reelected. While Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
(R) previously said there was "zero chance" Stevens
wouldn’t be expelled from the Senate if he didn’t
resign, McConnell now indicates he is willing to wait until Stevens
exhausts his appeals. Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) demanded Thursday
that the Senate GOP Caucus expel Stevens from the Senate during
this month's lame duck session. Expulsion from the Senate requires
a two-thirds majority vote (67 votes) to pass. If McConnell doesn’t
seek Stevens’ expulsion during the November special session,
The Politico reported that DeMint will introduce a motion
to expel in January. DeMint is apparently seeking to test McConnell's
leadership and help improve the GOP brand name by showing a zero
tolerance policy for corruption. 
of
precincts counted, plus thousands of absentee ballots also remain
uncounted. In Georgia, it was still unclear if US Senator Saxby
Chambliss (R) would win outright with a majority of the vote or
be forced into a December run-off against former State Representative
Jim Martin (D). With 99% of the votes counted, Chambliss was falling
slightly short with 49.8% versus 46.8% for Martin. In Oregon,
US Senator Gordon Smith (R) was leading State House Speaker Jeff
Merkley (D) by around 8,000 votes with 98% counted -- but the
outstanding votes largely come from two heavily Democratic counties:
Multnomah and Lane. The Portland Oregonian reported that
Merkley is "expected" to win once everything is counted
based upon the voting history of those two counties. In Minnesota,
US Senator Norm Coleman (R) finished less than 500 votes ahead
of liberal humorist Al Franken (D) with all of the nearly 3 million
votes counted. The TV networks and AP have declined to declare
Coleman the winner, although Coleman has twice declared himself
the winner. Coleman's margin, however, was reduced several times
on Wednesday as counties re-checked their mathematical calculations.
The race is heading to an automatic recount, although Coleman
unsuccessfully called on Franken to decline a recount. Under Minnesota
law, county election auditors and their counterparts from larger
cities will now go over each ballot to determine the voter's intent.
Observers from all sides will be watching to recount to ensure
fairness.
Attorney
Frank Kratovil (D) is leading State Senator Andy Harris (R) by
915 votes with nearly all votes counted. While Kratovil has not
yet been declared the winner for this solidly GOP seat, the math
seems to ensure a Dem pickup here once the recount is finalized.
In AK-1, Congressman Don Young (R) appears to have won re-election
with 99% of the vote counted -- despite being the target of a
federal corruption probe. Governor Sarah Palin's role as VP nominee
appears to have pumped-up GOP numbers in the state for incumbents
Young and Stevens. Democrat Ethan Berkowitz appeared unlikely
to call for a recount. In CA-4, State Senator Tom McClintock (D)
led retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D) by 451 votes with all
votes counted, but the race now heads to a recount. In VA-5, international
non-profit group founder Tom Perriello (D) led Congressman Virgil
Goode (R) by just 31 votes out of more than 310,000 cast with
all precincts counted. However, provisional and absentee ballots
remain uncounted. In OH-15, State Senator Steve Stivers (R) leads
Franlin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by 321 votes --
but thousands of absentee ballots from Kilroy's home county remain
to be counted. In WA-8, Congressman Dave Reichert (R) led by under
1,200 votes, but less than half of all precincts had reported
results by late Wednesday.
PRESIDENTIAL
TRANSITION. President-elect Barack Obama asked Congressman
Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) to serve as his White House Chief of Staff.
According to NBC News, Emanuel accepted and the news will be formally
announced on Thursday. Emanuel previously worked in the White
House as a senior advisor to President Clinton. He also served
as DCCC Chair, but would be setting aside his ambition to someday
be House Speaker by resigning his seat to serve in the Obama Administration.
In other news, US Senator Dick Lugar (R) announced he would not
accept any Cabinet position in the new administration. Colin Powell,
John Kerry and Chuck Hagel all appeared to express some interest
in serving in the next Cabinet. Powell is being mentioned as a
candidate for Education Secretary. Kerry expressed an interest
in serving as Secretary of State. Hagel's name is floating as
a candidate for either Defense of VA Secretary.
OBAMA WINS BIG! 
GEORGIA
(SurveyUSA): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 48%, former State
Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 44%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 5%.
Mitch
Daniels (R) - 60%, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson (D)
- 37%.
SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here are my final thanks to
those who sent me campaign buttons in exchange for a free plug
here: 
P2008.
Vice President Dick Cheney announced his endorsement of John McCain
during a campaign speech in Wyoming on Saturday. The Barack Obama
campaign immediately turned around a TV spot by Sunday morning
touting the Cheney endorsement. McCain, meanwhile, appeared on
Saturday Night Live and participated in two skits. In
other entertainment news, country singers Hank Williams Jr. and
Gretchen Wilson were on the trail this weekend for McCain. Rock
star Bruce Springsteen, rappers Jay-Z and Sean "Diddy"
Combs, and singers Mary J. Blige and Beyonce were on the trail
for Obama during these final days.
MICHIGAN
(Strategic Vision-R): US Senator Carl Levin (D) - 56%, State Rep.
Jack Hoogendyk (R) - 33%.
GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
Senator
Lindsey Graham (R) will easily defeat former Pat Buchanan campaign
activist and commercial pilot Bob Conley (D) -- although Conley
will finish in the low 40s.
TEXAS.
US
SENATE: The battle to replace retiring US Senator John
Warner (R) between two former '08 White House hopefuls isn't even
close. Former Governor Mark Warner (D) will defeat former Governor
Jim Gilmore (R) by at least 20 points. Another Dem pickup.
WASHINGTON.
WYOMING.
THE
PRESIDENCY.
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